Top 10 NBA stars in the European Championship: Jokic & Antetokounmpo & Doncic leads Shin Kyung enters the top five

Basketball 3:00pm, 23 August 2025

Translator's note: The original text was published on ESPN, and the data in the article were as of the time of the original text (August 20 local time). The dates and times involved are all local time

2025 Men's Basketball European Championships will be held from August 27 to September 14. The participating teams include the French team and Serbian team who were defeated by the United States in the 2024 Olympic knockout round, as well as 22 other teams from mainland Europe. While not every European NBA star will play, the intersection between the NBA and this event has never been more important. Strong teams like Serbia, Germany, France, Greece and Slovenia will all have multiple NBA players in their roster. Moreover, in the context of international stars' profound influence on the current NBA landscape, the performance of these players in the league provides one of the best references for us to estimate their potential influence in this event. Similarly, their performance in this tournament can also indicate their future performance in the NBA.

This is the driving force behind our launch of the top ten NBA players in the 2025 Men's Basketball European Championships.

We used estimated RAPTOR data, combined with personal statistics and players' team influence, to comprehensively measure player value, thereby assessing each player's predicted performance in the 2025-26 NBA season. After that, we introduced a version of the Basketball-Reference website simplified prediction system that takes into account age and past performance to predict offensive and defensive RAPTOR values for any player who has played in NBA over the past three seasons.

Remember that these data represent players' predicted performance throughout the 2025-26 NBA season, so their current competitive level may be different from next spring as the age brings. The older veterans may be in better form in this tournament than they have played 82 games, while the younger players may still be on the rise.

The teams are still finalizing the final lineup. Whether players such as Giannis Antetokounmpo participate has not been confirmed, and this list mainly focuses on players who are currently expected to participate.

In any case, these predictions give us a clear understanding of who is likely to be the protagonist of the 2025 Men's Basketball European Championship before a major NBA season arrives. The following are the specific rankings.

1. Nikola Jokic, Serbia

2025-26 season: 30 years old | Nuggets

2025-26 season estimated forecast value: offense +7.1 | defense +1.1 | Comprehensive +8.2

Jokic tops the list in the NBA talented players who may hold the European Championship trophy next month. Are there any questions? Jokic has the highest RAPTOR value in the regular season of the 2024-25 season, and he has won this honor for five consecutive seasons. He will now lead Serbia, a team that is a favorite on ESPN BET and may give them more motivation after squandering a 13-point lead into the fourth quarter in the Olympic semi-final loss to the United States last summer.

Serbia has not won the European Championship since 2001, and Jokic is not in the 2017 finals, so for the player who already has almost all the honors, this victory will be another chance to his honor book.

2, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greece

2025-26 season: 31 years old | Bucks

2025-26 season estimated forecast value: offense +5.0 | defense +0.7 | Comprehensive +5.7

Antetokounmpo has ranked no less than fourth in the NBA MVP voting for seven consecutive seasons, which is an amazing achievement, and he was elected twice, although the Bucks have only won the championship once during this period. He played a similar role in Greece in international competitions: He averaged 25.8 points in the Olympics last summer, but his team ended up in eighth. In the 2022 Men's Basketball European Championship, he led all scorers with an average of 29.3 points per game, but the Greek team eventually ranked fifth.

Greece won the championship in 2005 and won the medal again in 2009. Therefore, unfortunately, the country's greatest NBA player happened to be in a period when the national team performed mediocrely in international competitions. If Antetokounmpo is allowed to compete, he should once again dominate his personal performance.

3, Luka Doncic, Slovenia

2025-26 season: 26 years old | Lakers

2025-26 season estimated forecast value: offense +4.5 | defense +0.7 | Comprehensive +5.2

For NBA fans, the biggest attraction of this event may be to see Doncic participate in a heavy game for the first time after his hotly discussed offseason body transformation. Of course, data predictions cannot take these changes in size into consideration, but data shows that after being accidentally traded to the Lakers in the middle of the season, Doncic's influence has remained relatively stable, even though his performance in the first round of the playoffs was not as dominant as he led the Mavericks into the 2024 NBA Finals.

After avoiding serious injuries in the latest warm-up match, the European Championship should become Doncic's usual performance stage. He has been a regular on the stage since he played for the gold medal-winning Slovenia at the age of 17, and he is one of the best players in the 2022 European Championships – these early signs that he is about to take his game to a higher level. On the odds list of the championship, Slovenia is behind Serbia, Germany and France, but a new upgraded version of Doncic may become the key to changing the situation.

4. Franz Wagner, Germany

2025-26 season: 24 years old | Magic

2025-26 season estimated forecast: offense +3.1 | defense +0.9 | comprehensive +4.0

Wagner has long been a regular on these RAPTOR-based lists, and his selection has withstood the test of time. He will turn 24 on the opening day of the European Championship and has just had his best performance in his NBA career despite suffering a tear of his right oblique abdominal muscle in the middle of the season. He has already achieved success in these international events: He helped Germany win bronze at the 2022 European Championships, gold at the 2023 World Cup, and then fourth in the Olympics last year.

While Germany has multiple NBA players in its roster - and if Isaiah Haltenstein and Franz's older brother Moritz Wagner did not miss the tournament, Wagner was the biggest reason for Germany to have the second highest odds to win. And if his three-pointers really improve as hotly discussed before the game, it may herald another weapon to his arsenal of next NBA season.

5. Alperen Shinkyung, Turkey

2025-26 season: 23 years old | Rockets

2025-26 season estimated forecast value: offense +1.8 | defense +0.6 | comprehensive +2.4

Shinkyung once said that he hopes to win the 2025 European Championship this season and the NBA championship in the new season. After adding Kevin Durant to the young core led by Shin Kyung and Amen Thompson, the Rockets really look strong enough-they have the fifth highest odds to win. But Shin Kyung must improve his game as soon as possible to help Turkey win the European Championship, which tied for seventh in the championship odds, and has never surpassed eighth in their best results since winning the silver medal in 2001.

This will be one of the highest-spec international events Shin Kyung has ever participated, and like Wagner, it will be an opportunity to show his improvement in shooting skills. After shooting just 23.3% from three-pointers last season, Shin Kyung's jump shot was one of the few weaknesses left to make up before he moved to a higher-level star rank.

6. Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia

2025-26 season: 30 years old | Hawks

2025-26 season estimated forecast value: offense +1.7 | defense +0.4 | comprehensive +2.2

After winning the 2024 NBA championship with the Celtics, this former "unicorn" opened a new chapter in his basketball career. However, before appearing for the Hawks, he will add another mark to his European Championship resume, which has been silent for nearly ten years. In 2017, Porzingis, who was only 21 years old at the time, performed well for Latvia, averaging 23.6 points and 6.0 rebounds per game, helping the team finish fifth. This year's Latvia team are also former NBA players Davis Bertans and Daris Bertans, but people have low expectations for the team, and their odds of winning are only ninth. But Latvia did finish fifth in the 2023 World Cup and they are one of the hosts of the 2025 European Championship, which should improve Porzingis' performance.

7. Laurie Markanen, Finland

2025-26 season: 28 years old | Jazz

2025-26 season estimated forecast: offense +2.2 | Defense -0.9 | Comprehensive +1.3

Markanen were one of the most impressive players in the NBA in 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, and even by previous standards, his performance makes it possible for him to become a member of a core team in the championship. But nearly all of his indicators fell last season, resulting in his estimated RAPTOR value being only below average -0.5. Based on his strengths, he is still predicted to be an above-average player, but he needs to make a rebound in the new season to return to his previous All-Star level. And if his performance in the warm-up game can say anything - he scored 42 points and 12 rebounds against Poland earlier this week - Markkanen may be motivated to make another great performance in the tournament.

8. Deni Avdia, Israel

2025-26 season: 25 years old | Trail Blazers

2025-26 season estimated forecast: offense +0.7 | defense +0.4 | Comprehensive +1.1

Avdia may be the most underrated player in this European Championship. He made the most of a deal that sent him from the Wizards to the Trail Blazers last summer, setting career highs in a variety of statistics including scores (16.9), rebounds (7.3), assists (3.9), true shooting percentage (60.5%), PER (17.7), win contribution (5.6), estimated RAPTOR (+1.7) and WAR (5.1). His continued improvement in shooting and ball handling will determine whether he can keep this high level.

He has indeed had a history of outstanding performance on the international stage: at the FIBA U20 European Championship held by Israel in 2019, Avdia was elected the MVP and averaged 18.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.1 steals and 2.4 blocks on the way to lead the team to win gold. Although it is unlikely to be a team success like that this time (Israel's championship odds tied for the lowest among all teams), Avdia should be able to play good personal data.

9. Santi Aldama, Spain

2025-26 season: 25 years old | Grizzlies

2025-26 season estimated forecast: offense +0.4 | defense +0.5 | Comprehensive +0.9

Spain is a team in a period of transformation, and Aldama will be at the center of this huge change. As the defending champion, Spain has won four titles in the past six European Championships and has only failed to hit the podium once since 1997, which is fourth place in 2005. However, as the golden generation of veterans declined or gradually faded out, they fell to ninth place in the 2023 World Cup and tenth place in the 2024 Olympics.

Meritorious coach Sergio Scariolo - a four-time European Championship winner who has coached the team for most of the time since 2009 - will leave after this tournament. This means that with the help of Willie Hernangomez and Juan Hernangomez, Aldama is one of the leaders of Spain's next generation of stars. He was one of the fastest-progressing players in the NBA last season, and with more comprehensive offensive skills (and playing side by side with more talented players in a reviving Grizzlies team), his RAPTOR value rose from -1.7 to +1.8. Nevertheless, Spain will likely give up its European Championship crown, with them only ranked sixth in the odds list.

10. Nemias Kota, Portugal

2025-26 season: 26 years old | Celtics

2025-26 season estimated forecast value: Offense -0.4 | Defense +0.7 | Comprehensive +0.2

Kota played an impressive RAPTOR value of +4.6 in the very limited 333 minutes of playing time (11.9 minutes per game) in the 2023-24 season, but last season in the Celtics' crowded center rotation, the value dropped to -0.1 when his role increased and his playing time increased to 863 minutes. He has not been able to fully replicate the team's poor efficiency when he was on the court and absent a year ago (+9.4 per 100 rounds). Despite this, even players who are only at the league average are already quite rare, and this is a good opportunity for Kota to improve himself on a relatively high-level international stage.