Translator's note: The original text was published in The Ringer. The data in the article were as of the time of the original text (September 2 local time). The date and time involved were all local time
Clippers encountered a new opponent. Last summer, just as the NBA's new labor-management agreement was about to take full effect, the team faced two major decisions. Paul George and James Harden are both completely free agents, and as the team is about to launch its brand new arena in Inglewood, expectations for the Clippers are very high.
Now, you must have heard a lot about the so-called "second tyrant line", which is a new luxury tax threshold that introduces the most severe punishment for super hat teams in NBA history. The huge luxury tax bill is not new, but for the first time in history, the current labor-capital agreement punishes teams who spend a lot of money by strictly limiting team building tools. The second tycoon line is essentially a poison clause, so toxic that many teams now regard this threshold as an effective hard salary cap, and it has significantly changed the way bosses and management value players and contracts in the world's best basketball league. Instead of providing both George and Harden with long-term maximum salary early contract renewal as it used to be, the Clippers offer a contract that can be called a "situational contract" - a contract between a short relationship and a loyal relationship with a high average annual salary, but less years than the stars are used to. Harden signed a two-year $70 million contract with the Clippers. George received a similar offer, as he later recalled on one of his podcast episodes, but instead found a team willing to meet all his contract requirements — he signed a richer four-year, $212 million contract with the Sixers.
Steve Ballmer, the richest boss in the NBA, was eventually constrained by the second rich line. The rules of the game have changed. With George's departure, the Clippers signed role players like Derek Jones Jr. and Nicholas Batum, who signed cheap contracts, but these veterans played a great value.
Meanwhile, at the 76ers, Daryl Morey locked in his new Big Three with maximum salary space. Not only did he sign George, he also gave Terry Maxi a five-year, $204 million maximum salary contract in July, and in September he gave injury-ridden Joel Embiid a three-year early renewal worth more than $190 million. The latter contract also includes a generous player option, which will bring Embiid $67 million in the 2028-29 season. While paying a salary for a rising player like Maxi is still a wise business, the new rules make it more riskier than ever to sign a long-term contract with an elderly star. Teams that lock big money on underperforming superstars will simply not be able to compete on the court or on the market.
The horizontal axis is age and the vertical axis is the quantized performance; blue represents Embiid, and red represents George
This figure shows the positive and negative trajectory of Embiid and George's careers. If the current trend continues, the 76ers will be completely trapped in this contract of "paying for the players' past performance". This is a big taboo for the management of all sports. George only played 41 games last season, Embiid only played 19 games, and the team completely collapsed, and his record fell to 24 wins and 58 losses in those years. Now the Sixers are trapped by two huge contracts they may wish they hadn't given, while the Clippers appear savvy. George's series reflects the changes that the league is taking place in the second rich line era.
So, what does the 76ers story mean for the future of the NBA? Three things are happening at the same time.
First, teams are more afraid of luxury tax than ever. Even the wealthiest bosses in the league are now evading taxes in ways that would not have been a few years ago. Although Ballmer and the Clippers are the most typical examples, they are by no means isolated. Breaking apart and trading its championship roster is another obvious case. There is only one team in the entire league, namely the Cavaliers, surpassing the second rich line. Theoretically, the NBA still does not have a "hard salary cap", but when 97% of its teams perform as if they have a hard salary cap, the market for top talents in the league naturally changes. Secondly, with more and more star players like George and Harden playing to their thirties and even in some cases like LeBron James, many of the most destructive contracts in the league now involve teams providing long-term security contracts for a player who has passed their peak. In recent years, there have been some warning cases that have caused heavy losses to the team bosses. In the second-large tyrant era, these contracts are handcuffs; the biggest revelation this summer is not about superstars changing teams, but about the Bucks and Suns throwing hundreds of millions of dollars into the trash, cutting them off and using extended terms to deal with the maximum salary contracts of Damian Lillard and Bradley Bill - these unprecedented operations prove that traditional management wisdom has changed. Third, the rise of data analytics has changed the way bosses and executives evaluate their investments. Like it or not, the aging curve like the one above has destroyed the market for older stars. These tools provide a calm perspective and let us see how age affects NBA players’ performance. A key conclusion is: Modern alliances are a game for young people. Last season, 12 of the 15 All-American players in the league were 31 years old or under. Give a veteran a long-term maximum salary contract, like a new "mid-distance jumper" (an option considered inefficient in the age of data analysis). Ironically, the contract offered by Darryl Morey, a fan of the "magic ball" theory, now looks like a hot map of Demar DeRozan's shooting (full of mid-range shots considered inefficient).
For many big-name stars in the league, these factors have collectively led to the rise of "NBA situational relationships". Stars' two to three-year contracts are becoming more and more popular. Just this summer, Kyrie Irving, Fred VanVleet, James Harden and Julius Randle all signed relatively short-term "situational" contracts. Even LeBron, the league's facade, found himself in a situational relationship. Frankly, this embarrasses both sides. Both sides were distracted.
Next year, it may be Trae Young and Zach Laven's turn to face the situational contract terms. Both players have an All-Star resume, but it is not clear to what extent the two stars can actually affect the victory of the game. Their curve doesn't look great: the horizontal axis is the number of career appearances, the vertical axis is the quantized performance; blue represents LaVine, and red represents Yang
Under the previous labor-management agreement, it is a decision that requires no thinking about for players like Yang and LaVine, but those days are gone forever. According to The Athletic reporter Sam Amik, Raven is eligible for an early contract renewal this offseason, but the Kings are more inclined to pay the money to "a younger player who can be part of their long-term blueprint." And LaVin is only 30 years old.
Young's next contract is one of the most interesting ways to understand how NBA teams work under the new labor agreement. He is only 26 years old now. He is a four-time All-Star player and has led his team to the division finals. But his early renewal window has been open since July, and the Hawks' silence shows that the team is not in a hurry to give him a big contract. The Hawks also have talented players like Jaylen Johnson, Zachary Rissache, Dyson Daniels and Oneka Okonwu. And the reality is that if they give Young a maximum salary contract, the team can’t afford to keep everyone. In a deep-king alliance, this is a problem for Yang's camp. The best teams now fill their payroll with cost-effective superstars and a large number of complementary role players. Giving anyone an over-the-top salary, especially top talents, will prevent the team from building a deep lineup.
In short, the second rich line has reshaped the NBA's salary landscape, and these changes are having a significant impact on many of the biggest stars in the league. One executive told me that “free market is dead”, which means that when stars like Young and LaVine enter the market, they will be greeted with fewer suitors and shorter-term offers. The definition of a maximum-paid player is now more stringent. The dramatic buyout of Lillard and Bill is a precedent, which is surprisingly proof that at least two teams would rather burn money than be trapped in bad contracts in the coming years.
Ultimately, this is why this new era of labour agreements is so strange: the NBA is still a star-driven league, but there seem to be more teams seeking a moment of joy than ever. Situational relationships are not for long-term use, but they are still better than a bad marriage.
Author: Kirk Goldsberry
Translator: GWayNe
source:bóng đá 7m